{
  "id": "lib-process:scientific-discovery--probabilistic-forecasting-calibration",
  "_kind": "LibraryProcess",
  "_file": "generated-library/processes.yaml",
  "_cluster": "generated-library",
  "attributes": {
    "displayName": "probabilistic-forecasting-calibration",
    "description": "Generate well-calibrated probability estimates - Guides forecasters through\nrigorous probabilistic forecasting with calibration training, proper scoring, and aggregation.",
    "libraryPath": "library/specializations/domains/science/scientific-discovery/probabilistic-forecasting-calibration.js",
    "specialization": "scientific-discovery",
    "references": [
      "- Tetlock, P.E. & Gardner, D. (2015). Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction\n- Gneiting, T. & Raftery, A.E. (2007). Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation\n- Morgan, M.G. & Henrion, M. (1990). Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty\n- Mellers, B. et al. (2014). Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament"
    ],
    "example": "const result = await orchestrate('domains/science/scientific-discovery/probabilistic-forecasting-calibration', {\n  question: 'Will Company X achieve $1B revenue by 2025?',\n  timeHorizon: '2 years',\n  baseRates: { industryGrowth: 0.15, successRate: 0.30 },\n  informationSources: ['financial reports', 'industry analysis', 'expert interviews']\n});",
    "usesAgents": [
      "bayesian-inference-engine"
    ]
  },
  "outgoingEdges": [
    {
      "from": "lib-process:scientific-discovery--probabilistic-forecasting-calibration",
      "to": "skill-area:data-analysis",
      "kind": "lib_requires_skill_area",
      "attributes": {
        "weight": 1
      }
    },
    {
      "from": "lib-process:scientific-discovery--probabilistic-forecasting-calibration",
      "to": "skill-area:statistical-analysis",
      "kind": "lib_requires_skill_area",
      "attributes": {
        "weight": 0.7
      }
    },
    {
      "from": "lib-process:scientific-discovery--probabilistic-forecasting-calibration",
      "to": "skill-area:deep-web-research",
      "kind": "lib_requires_skill_area",
      "attributes": {
        "weight": 0.5
      }
    },
    {
      "from": "lib-process:scientific-discovery--probabilistic-forecasting-calibration",
      "to": "domain:scientific-discovery",
      "kind": "lib_applies_to_domain",
      "attributes": {
        "weight": 1
      }
    },
    {
      "from": "lib-process:scientific-discovery--probabilistic-forecasting-calibration",
      "to": "role:research-engineer",
      "kind": "lib_involves_role",
      "attributes": {
        "weight": 1
      }
    },
    {
      "from": "lib-process:scientific-discovery--probabilistic-forecasting-calibration",
      "to": "role:computational-scientist",
      "kind": "lib_involves_role",
      "attributes": {
        "weight": 0.7
      }
    },
    {
      "from": "lib-process:scientific-discovery--probabilistic-forecasting-calibration",
      "to": "workflow:experiment-design",
      "kind": "lib_implements_workflow",
      "attributes": {
        "weight": 1
      }
    },
    {
      "from": "lib-process:scientific-discovery--probabilistic-forecasting-calibration",
      "to": "workflow:peer-review-cycle",
      "kind": "lib_implements_workflow",
      "attributes": {
        "weight": 0.7
      }
    },
    {
      "from": "lib-process:scientific-discovery--probabilistic-forecasting-calibration",
      "to": "specialization:scientific-research-methods",
      "kind": "lib_belongs_to_specialization",
      "attributes": {
        "weight": 1
      }
    },
    {
      "from": "lib-process:scientific-discovery--probabilistic-forecasting-calibration",
      "to": "specialization:scientific-discovery",
      "kind": "lib_belongs_to_specialization",
      "attributes": {
        "weight": 0.9
      }
    }
  ],
  "incomingEdges": []
}