II.
LibraryProcess overview
Reference · livelib-process:scientific-discovery--probabilistic-forecasting-calibration
probabilistic-forecasting-calibration overview
Generate well-calibrated probability estimates - Guides forecasters through rigorous probabilistic forecasting with calibration training, proper scoring, and aggregation.
Attributes
displayName
probabilistic-forecasting-calibration
description
Generate well-calibrated probability estimates - Guides forecasters through
rigorous probabilistic forecasting with calibration training, proper scoring, and aggregation.
libraryPath
library/specializations/domains/science/scientific-discovery/probabilistic-forecasting-calibration.js
specialization
scientific-discovery
references
- - Tetlock, P.E. & Gardner, D. (2015). Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction - Gneiting, T. & Raftery, A.E. (2007). Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation - Morgan, M.G. & Henrion, M. (1990). Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty - Mellers, B. et al. (2014). Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament
example
const result = await orchestrate('domains/science/scientific-discovery/probabilistic-forecasting-calibration', {
question: 'Will Company X achieve $1B revenue by 2025?',
timeHorizon: '2 years',
baseRates: { industryGrowth: 0.15, successRate: 0.30 },
informationSources: ['financial reports', 'industry analysis', 'expert interviews']
});
usesAgents
- bayesian-inference-engine
Outgoing edges
lib_applies_to_domain1
- domain:scientific-discovery·DomainScientific Discovery
lib_belongs_to_specialization2
- specialization:scientific-research-methods·SpecializationScientific Research Methods
- specialization:scientific-discovery·SpecializationScientific Discovery
lib_implements_workflow2
- workflow:experiment-design·WorkflowExperiment Design
- workflow:peer-review-cycle·WorkflowPeer Review Cycle
lib_involves_role2
- role:research-engineer·RoleResearch Engineer
- role:computational-scientist·RoleComputational Scientist
lib_requires_skill_area3
- skill-area:data-analysis·SkillAreaData Analysis
- skill-area:statistical-analysis·SkillAreaStatistical Analysis
- skill-area:deep-web-research·SkillAreaDeep Web Research
Incoming edges
None.