displayName
Forecasting Model Calibration
workflowKind
governance
triggerType
scheduled
typicalCadence
quarterly
complexity
cross-team
description
Calibrates organizational forecasting models against realized
outcomes -- comparing prior predictions to actuals across revenue,
headcount, infrastructure spend, and capacity projections, computing
Brier scores and calibration curves for probability estimates,
identifying systematic over- or under-confidence bands, adjusting
model parameters and ensemble weights, and documenting calibration
methodology changes. Produces model accuracy report and updated
calibration parameters. Excludes model architecture redesign.